This week's report, in keeping with three earlier investigations into the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit, limited its inquiry to the "processes and procedures" of the IPCC. While it found those wanting, it also saw no need to question their scientific result.
That's too bad, since the state of the science has moved on considerably since the IPCC concluded in its 2007 report that climate change was "unequivocal." A forthcoming paper in Annals of Applied Statistics details the uncertainties in trying to reconstruct historical temperatures using proxy data such as tree rings and ice cores. Statisticians Blakeley McShane and Abraham Wyner find that while proxy records may relate to temperatures, when it comes to forecasting the warming observed in the last 30 years, "the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature."
(Isto é sobre o enterro do chamado "Hockey Stick"....)
Also, last month, New Phytologist published a series of papers examining the Amazon rain forest's vulnerability to drought, following years of increasingly dire predictions that anthropogenic carbon emissions and global warming will kill off Amazon trees. Climatologist Peter Cox, a co-author on four of those papers, told us, "One of the things that turns out to be important is the extent to which tropical forests respond positively to CO2 increases."
Ou seja, nem se sabe se o efeito é positivo ou negativo... Conclui,
None of this proves or disproves anything, except that our understanding of how our climate works is still evolving. Is it too much to ask the climate establishment to acknowledge as much?
Usando a língua original, I wouldn't hold my breath. O que é curioso é que quando, 6 anos atrás, Michael Crichton defendeu esta mesma tese (a de que sabemos muito menos do que pretendemos saber sobre o clima), foi incinerado pelos media. Hoje, passados quase 2 anos após a sua morte, os media lentamente adoptam a sua posição. Não tenho é grandes expectativas de que o próximo relatório do IPCC, em 2014, chegue a esta humildade (embora hajam indicações nesse sentido). Talvez em 2021?
Michael Crichton, nunca consegui ler um livro dele é pior nos alongamentos que o Sousa Tavares
ResponderEliminartambém tinha opinião sobre o assunto
faz sentido um médico-climatólogo
1973 Westworld -gostei dos filmes especialmente deste vi-o numa esplanada (cinema sem tecto)e aqui há duas semanas na meo
é uma máquina do tempo
se queres links interessantes sobre blogs de climatologia
vai a
http://rockglacier.blogspot.com/
estão do lado esquerdo
What Global Warming Looks Like
The July 2010 global map of surface temperature anomalies (Figure 1), relative to the average
July in the 1951-1980 period of climatology, provides a useful picture of current climate. It was more
than 5°C (about 10°F) warmer than climatology in the eastern European region including Moscow.
There was an area in eastern Asia that was similarly unusually hot. The eastern part of the United States
was unusually warm, although not to the degree of the hot spots in Eurasia.
There were also substantial areas cooler than climatology, including a region in central Asia and
the southern part of South America. The emerging La Nina is now moderately strong, as evidenced by
the region cooler than climatology along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
The global average July 2010 temperature was 0.55°C warmer than climatology in the GISS
analysis, which puts 2010 in practically a three way tie for third warmest July. July 1998 was the
warmest in the GISS analysis, at 0.68°C.
The 12-month running mean of global temperature (Figure 2) achieved a record high level during
the past few months. Because the current La Nina will continue at least several months, and likely
strengthen somewhat, the 12-month running mean temperature is expected to decline during the second
half of 2010.
Will calendar year 2010 be the warmest in the period of instrumental data? Figure 3 shows that
through the first seven months 2010 is warmer than prior warm years. The difference of +0.08°C
compared with 2005, the prior warmest year, is large enough that 2010 is likely, but not certain...
isto é o último
com as férias só há outro neste mês
em 2021 se estivermos cá
ResponderEliminarduvido que haja muitos cépticos
o nível do Amazonas está menor do que naqueles anos de 2005 e 6
é o nível mais baixo em 60 anos
o João Vet é capaz de ver algumas das suas crenças tornadas realidade
as perdas de grão e de tubérculos foram grandes
assi como do algodão
já há motins por causa dos aumentos de preços
quando essas alterações são mínimas
se o verão no hemisfério sul for similar
a este nortenho
não precisarás de esperar por 2014
se não for...pode demorar uns anos
mas cubos de gelo com 4 milhas a cairem de margens glaciares relativamente estáveis há 1000 anos
e temperaturas de 14º em Ilulissat não pressagiam nada de bom
o que vem ai não sei
mas eu prefiro a paz podre
é melhor para as finanças